Port Pick-Up Volume Expected to Increase Next Week, Providing Some Support to Iron Ore Spot Prices [SMM Brief Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore futures dropped significantly. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 764, down 2.18% for the day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell. Steel mills began pre-holiday restocking, with procurement volume increasing significantly WoW. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 763-768 yuan/mt, down 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were 780 yuan/mt, also down 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. As of January 3, according to SMM monitoring, total inventory at 35 ports reached 145.22 million mt, up 2.4 million mt WoW and up 25.92 million mt YoY. The daily port pick-up volume of imported ore averaged 3.08 million mt, down 47,000 mt WoW but up 140,000 mt YoY. During this period, port arrivals increased slightly; on the demand side, pig iron production from steel mill blast furnaces declined, and restocking pace was not evident, leading to a slight decrease in port pick-up volume. Overall, port inventory increased slightly this week. Looking ahead to next week, port arrivals are expected to increase slightly. As year-end approaches, steel mills may accelerate restocking, which could lead to an increase in port pick-up volume and a potential destocking trend at ports, providing support for spot prices.